Geospatial Assessment of Forest Carbon Dynamics and Climate Drivers in Nigeria: Implications for Climate-Resilient Strategies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47514/kjg.2025.07.01.043Keywords:
Forest Carbon Loss, Climate Variability, Remote Sensing, Climate Finance, Carbon AccountingAbstract
This study investigates forest carbon dynamics in Nigeria and their interactions with climatic variability to support climate-resilient development. Leveraging satellite-derived data from 2001 to 2023, we quantified annual carbon loss using the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset and augmented the analysis with MODIS Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as innovative proxies for carbon uptake and vegetation health, addressing the limitation of Hansen's non-annual gain data. The results show that approximately 50.5 million tonnes (tC) of carbon was lost, a mean per-hectare loss shifted from 0.045 tC/ha in 2004 to 0.374 tC/ha in 2022. NDVI and NPP revealed a steady decrease in 2016 and 2017, respectively, indicating diminished productivity. Land Surface Temperature (LST) rose above 34°C in 2021, intensifying stress, while precipitation showed high variability without a prevailing trend. Spatial hotspots included severe degradation in Okpara and River Moshi forests, with relative resilience in Okomu and Oluwa. The Pearson correlations established moderate links between carbon loss and rising LST (r = 0.62), decreasing NDVI (r = -0.58), and NPP (r = -0.51). These discoveries show the need for integrated monitoring and emphasize opportunities under REDD+ and related mechanisms for resilience-building.
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The satellite datasets and spatial layers used in this study were sourced from publicly accessible repositories via Google Earth Engine. Processed data and analysis outputs are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Nnachi Nnachi (Author)
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