Drivers of Vegetation Cover Loss in Zamfara State: Disentangling Climatic Variability and Anthropogenic Pressures (1985–2020)

Abstract

Understanding the drivers of vegetation cover change in semiarid regions is critical for sustainable land management and climate adaptation. In this paper, the relative influence of climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures on long-term vegetation cover loss across Zamfara State, Nigeria, from 1985 to 2020 was investigated. Fractional vegetation cover maps derived from CLASlite-processed Landsat imagery were integrated with climatic datasets (rainfall and temperature) and human activity proxies (population density, artisanal mining, and agricultural expansion). Statistical and spatial analyses, including correlation, multiple regression, and random forest modelling, were used to quantify the contribution of each driver to vegetation change. The results reveal that both climate and anthropogenic activities significantly influence vegetation dynamics, with anthropogenic pressures explaining approximately 60% of the observed variability. Mining and settlement density emerged as dominant local drivers, whereas rainfall variability accounted for large-scale temporal fluctuations. The findings emphasize the need for integrated land use and climate policies that address both human and environmental factors that drive vegetation degradation in northern Nigeria.