Analysis of Trends and Variability of Rainfall and Temperature in Lapai LGA, Niger State, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47514/kjg.2026.08.01.005Abstract
Climate variability continues to impact the livelihoods of rural communities, especially families that rely on rainfed agriculture. This study examined the trends and variability of rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures in Lapai, Niger State. Monthly rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature time series (January 1990–December 2025) were obtained from NASA Power covering 36 years. The study used the Coefficient of Variation (CV), Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI), Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) trend test, Sen’s slope estimator, Seasonal Mann–Kendall test, and Pettitt tests to analyze the data. The study revealed annual rainfall had moderate variability (CV=26.7%), while maximum and minimum temperatures had low variability with 6.13% and 10.8%, respectively. The MMK revealed a significantly declining trend in annual rainfall (Z = −2.49, p < 0.05) with a Sen’s slope of −10.35 mm year⁻¹, while maximum and minimum temperatures revealed significantly increasing trends, increasing by 0.11°C and 0.05°C annually, respectively. The Seasonal MK also revealed significantly decreasing rainfall and an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures. The Pettitt’s test revealed significant changepoints in rainfall in 1998, maximum temperature in 1997, and minimum temperature in 2002. Results of the SAI revealed an increased frequency of negative anomalies of annual rainfall, indicating intense drying in the area. The study concludes that the findings suggest emerging warming-drying spells in Lapai LGA, which can have negative implications for rain-fed agriculture, water resources, and climate adaptation planning.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Hamzat Aliyu, Mohammed Abdulkadir, Ahmed Ibn Usman, Maryam Ijah Mohammed, Ndaji Mohammed, Mohammed Mayaki (Author)
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