Geospatial Analysis of Hydro-Socioeconomic Factors Driving Flood Risk in the Hadejia River Basin, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47514/kjg.2026.08.01.065Keywords:
Land Use Land Cover, Flood Risk, Satellite Imagery, Climate, Hadejia-Jamaare BasinAbstract
Flooding is the most recurrent natural hazard in northern Nigeria's Sudano-Sahelian zone. Yet, the combined influence of climatic, hydrological, and socioeconomic drivers of flood risk in the Hadejia River Basin remains poorly quantified. This study identified and spatially analysed the key natural and anthropogenic factors driving flood risk in the basin. Primary data (a three-phase field reconnaissance survey with GPS ground-truthing, August 2023–January 2024) were integrated with secondary datasets: Sentinel-2A imagery, ALOS PALSAR DEM, CHIRPS rainfall (1981–2022), WorldClim temperature, and soil, geological, and socioeconomic layers. Analyses combined supervised maximum-likelihood classification of land use/land cover (LULC), Mann–Kendall trend testing, and GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to weight sixteen flood-causative factors grouped into meteorological, hydrological, and socioeconomic criteria. Results show a significant upward trend in annual rainfall (τ = 0.377, p = 0.0005) and temperature (τ = 0.259, p = 0.019), with the wettest year on record (777.59 mm) in 2022. Between 2013 and 2023, water bodies and dense vegetation contracted by 10 km² and 6 km², respectively, while farmland and built-up areas expanded by 94 km² and 8 km², respectively, reducing natural retention and increasing surface runoff. Recorded flood occurrences peaked at 538 events in 2022. Proximity to the river, low elevation, gentle slope, high drainage density, and sparse vegetation emerged as the dominant spatial controls of risk. The study recommends integrating these geospatial outputs into floodplain zoning, early-warning systems, and climate-smart land management to strengthen basin-wide flood resilience.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Muhammad Tukur Murtala, Mohammad Hadi Ahmad, Abdullahi Balarabe, Muktar Ahmad, Usman Ado Kibon, Iguisi E. O, Auwal Aliyu, Nasir Kabiru Muhammad (Author)
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