Spatial Assessment of Crime Vulnerability Using AHP and GIS in Kano Metropolis

Abstract

Crime remains a significant urban challenge in Kano Metropolis, requiring data-driven approaches to understand its spatial patterns and support effective interventions. This study applies geospatial techniques to model crime vulnerability using an integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework. Factors considered include distance to police stations, population density, land use/land cover, poverty index, road network density, education level, and the children exclusion index. These variables were standardized, reclassified into vulnerability classes, and weighted according to their influence on crime occurrence. A weighted overlay analysis was conducted to produce a composite Crime Vulnerability Index (CVI) map, categorizing the metropolis into low, moderate, and high-risk zones. The results reveal clear spatial variations in crime vulnerability. Low vulnerability areas cover 340.8 km² (68.3%) of the study area, moderate vulnerability zones account for 107.8 km² (21.6%), while high vulnerability areas occupy 50.4 km² (10.1%). High-risk zones are concentrated in densely populated areas with intense commercial activities, poor socio-economic conditions, and limited access to police services. Conversely, low-risk areas are associated with planned residential neighborhoods, lower population density, and stronger security presence. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating GIS and multi-criteria decision-making techniques in identifying crime hotspots and recommends enhanced policing, surveillance systems, and GIS-based monitoring to support proactive crime prevention and efficient resource allocation.