Development of a Predictive Framework for Extreme Heat Wave Events in Gombe State, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47514/kjg.2026.08.01.047Keywords:
Heat Waves, Maximum Temperature, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Block Maxima, Peaks-over-ThresholdAbstract
Gombe State is experiencing escalating extreme heat waves that are profoundly affecting agriculture, public health, water resources, and broader socio-economic stability. The region's vulnerability is further intensified by pre-existing environmental challenges, such as desertification and climate change. These growing concerns highlight the urgent need for an in-depth analysis to understand the patterns of extreme heat events and to devise effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. In response to this need, this study focuses on developing a statistical model to investigate the dynamics and consequences of extreme heat waves in Gombe State using Extreme Value Theory (EVT). A dataset of monthly maximum temperatures covering the past decade was obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet). Before modeling, the stationarity of the data was confirmed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Subsequently, the dataset was analyzed using both the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. To ensure a comprehensive assessment, two modeling approaches were employed: the Peaks-over-Threshold (POT) method for the GPD model and the Block Maxima method for the GEV model. The robustness and adequacy of the fitted models were evaluated using several diagnostic tools, including return level plots, probability–probability (P–P) plots, parameter stability plots, mean residual life plots, and quantile–quantile (Q–Q) plots. Furthermore, a comparative analysis based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) revealed that the GPD model derived from the POT approach provided a better fit than the GEV model based on the Block Maxima approach. Building on the selected model, return levels were estimated for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100-year return periods. The findings reveal an alarming upward trend in extreme temperatures in Gombe State, suggesting that heat conditions may soon reach intolerable levels. Notably, for the return periods, the temperature is projected to increase from 35.16 °C to 38.33 °C, and up to 43.66 °C for a 100-year return period. This indicates that both the frequency and intensity of extreme heat waves are likely to increase significantly in the near future.
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Data Availability Statement
The dataset used in this study is available upon request from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).
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Copyright (c) 2026 Mohammed Bappah Mohammed, Isah Ibrahim Abubakar, Emmanuel Torsen (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
