Assessment of Hydroclimatic Trends and Water Availability Dynamics in Mubi North, Adamawa State, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47514/kjg.2025.07.01.008Keywords:
Hydroclimatic trends, Sen’s Slope, Water AvailabilityAbstract
Water availability in semi-arid regions is highly sensitive to fluctuations in climate and land-surface processes; however, the limited knowledge of long-term hydroclimatic behavior in northeastern Nigeria limits effective resource management. This work investigated four decades of hydroclimatic variability (1985-2024) in Mubi North, Adamawa State, exploring the interlinkages between temperature, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, vapour pressure, and water deficit. Data were gathered from the Climate Engine website through the TerraClimate and GRIDMET datasets (~4-km resolution). Monthly records were summarized into annual means. Analyses used the Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen's slope estimator, and Pearson correlation to assess the trends and interdependencies. Among the more pronounced changes, minimum temperature increased by +0.41 °C per decade, runoff by +1.9 mm/year, soil moisture by +3.4 mm/year, and vapor pressure by +0.12 kPa per decade, with a reduction in water deficit by -2.6 mm/year, thus signalling an improvement in water availability despite ongoing warming. In addition, maximum temperature and precipitation increased insignificantly, at +0.09 °C per decade and +2.8 mm/year, respectively. Highly statistically significant positive correlations between precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture (r = 0.756-0.932, p < 0.001) confirm rainfall as the dominant driver of hydrology, while land-surface conditions affect storage and flow responses. Overall, this study has shown that Mubi North has undergone significant hydroclimatic transformation driven by warming, increased soil moisture, enhanced runoff, and reduced water stress. To ensure the continuation of such positive changes, this study prioritizes integrated land-water management that promotes soil moisture conservation through, for instance, agroforestry and mulching, erosion control, and climate-resilient agricultural planning supported by regular hydroclimatic monitoring and land-use studies to enhance adaptive water policies in semi-arid northeastern Nigeria.
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