Quantifying the Spatiotemporal Nexus between Deforestation and Land Surface Temperature Rise in a Semi-Arid African City: A 20-Year Geospatial Analysis of Katsina Metropolis, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47514/kjg.2025.07.01.003Abstract
Rapid urbanization in semi-arid Africa often triggers deforestation, raising concerns about its impact on urban microclimates and the intensification of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This study provides a rigorous 20-year geospatial analysis of the relationship between deforestation and Land Surface Temperature (LST) in Katsina Metropolis, Nigeria, a rapidly growing city in the semi-arid Sudan Savanna. Using Landsat satellite imagery (2002, 2012, 2022), we quantified vegetation cover change via the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and retrieved LST using the mono-window algorithm. Our findings reveal a significant degradation of dense vegetation, which declined by 23.1% (a loss of 5.51 km²), while non-vegetated areas expanded by 59.6% (a gain of 17.13 km²). This land cover transformation was accompanied by a pronounced rise in LST, with the mean temperature increasing by 2.5°C and the minimum temperature rising sharply by 5.6°C, indicating an intensified and persistent UHI effect. Critically, correlation analysis demonstrated a strong and strengthening negative relationship between NDVI and LST, with the coefficient of determination (R²) increasing to 0.81 by 2022. This confirms that vegetation loss is the dominant driver of urban warming in this semi-arid setting. The study concludes that unchecked urban expansion at the expense of green spaces poses a significant environmental threat, and it underscores the urgent need for integrated urban greening strategies as a primary component of climate-resilient planning in semi-arid African cities.
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