Analysis of Future Trend and Variability of Extreme Climate Indices in Kano State, Nigeria (2024-2099)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47514/kjg.2025.07.01.035Keywords:
Bias Correction, Climate Change, Climate Downscaling, Extreme Climate Indices, NigeriaAbstract
Human-induced climate change has affected the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events globally, leading to widespread adverse impacts. This study examined the future (2024-2099) trend and variability of climate indices in Kano State, Nigeria, using CanESM5 Global Climate Model (GCM) of CMIP6. The GCM was downscaled using SDSM software and a future (2024-2099) scenario was generated. Power Transformation (PT) and Distribution Mapping (DM) were applied to minimize bias in the generated scenario. RClimdex (1) was used to compute extremes, while Modified Mann-Kendall and Coefficient of Variation were employed to calculate trends and variability of their extremes, respectively. Results show that there will be a significant increase in nighttime cooling, but daytime temperatures show a signal of both warming and cooling in the future. Also, a significant increase in maximum temperature and a decrease in minimum temperature are expected in the future. Generally, temperature indices showed low variability except for TX10p, TX90p, TN10p, and TN90p which showed moderate variability. The analysis of extreme rainfall indices indicates a future decrease in the intensity of extreme rainfall, as well as variations in the frequency of extreme rainfall indices. Rainfall indices showed moderate variability, except for R95p and R99p, which showed high variability. There is a need to raise awareness among local communities and stakeholders about the impacts of changing climate extremes. There is also a need to establish comprehensive climate monitoring systems in Kano State to continuously collect and analyse data on temperature and rainfall patterns.
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